Do you obsessively make decisions based on your daily horoscope? This phenomenon shows you why it isn’t a good idea

The Barnum Effect is defined as when individuals believe that any piece of generic information—which could be applicable for anyone—applies only to themselves, leading to potentially sinister implications

Ziya isn’t much of a news enthusiast, but in the last decade, there hasn’t been a single day when she didn’t pick up the newspaper that comes home, before starting her day. The 33-year-old Pune resident who works in retail never takes a step without consulting with her stars, and her horoscope is the only daily update she ever needs. “I know, I know. Not the best thing to do, but now it’s become a way of life,” she says.

On most days, she believes the predictions turn out fairly accurate, so she does not feel the need to let go of this habit. “I know this is mostly frowned upon, and the elders in my family absolutely hate this habit. But if it helps me understand my life better, why not?” asks Ziya. When The Established reaches out to her parents for comments, we are met with severe exasperation. “I mean, can you believe this? She is an educated young woman. How can she let a random person out there dictate her life to the extent where she does not take a step without consulting these columns?” says her mother, Niloufer, a homemaker, adding that she believes her daughter has now started to even design her life according to such predictions. “She and I are both Scorpios. By that logic, both our days should turn out the same, but it doesn’t. How does this make any sense?” asks Niloufer.

Niloufer’s unease with such ambiguity and abstraction plaguing astrology and its projections isn’t unfounded and, in fact, has a more formal name in psychology: The Barnum Effect. In layperson terms, the Barnum Effect is defined as when individuals believe that any piece of generic information—which could be applicable for anyone—applies only to themselves.

Tracing the origins 

The term for this phenomenon comes from the phrase often ascribed—perhaps inaccurately—to the 19th-century American showman and politician  P. T. Barnum, who had allegedly said that a “sucker” is born every minute. Different branches of astrology and fortune-telling, including psychics, horoscopes, magicians, palm readers, and crystal-ball gazers, are known to employ the Barnum Effect in an attempt to convince people that their description of them is highly precise and tailored to an individual, and does not apply to others.

It is also sometimes called the “Forer Effect” after American psychologist Bertram Forer (1914-2000), who discovered it in 1948, when he asked his students to fill out a personality test, promising them an analysis based on what the results of their tests were. After giving each student an analysis, he asked them to rate it on a scale of 0-5, with zero being very inaccurate and five being very accurate.

The average score given by the students was 4.26 (out of 5). However, what they didn’t know was that each student had received the same analysis, with the report comprising generic statements such as, “you have a need for people to appreciate you, and yet you tend to be critical of yourself”—that could apply to absolutely anyone, even ones beyond the test pool. 

However, the term was ultimately coined by American psychologist Paul Meehl, in the 1950s, according to whom most people were willing to accept generic personality descriptions of themselves as true, even if they could apply seamlessly to almost anyone.

Real-world implications 

The Barnum Effect feeds into deep-seated human insecurities, where a lack of sense of self can encourage people to use tools like astrology or horoscopes as crutches to gain a sense of control over their lives, says Kolkata-based psychologist Nilanjana Chatterjee Chakraborty. In a country as superstitious as India, this phenomenon becomes even more recurring. “In our country, where most people believe so much in astrology, they want to have some predictability in their lives. Astrology is going to lend you a sense of control. You might be told that at age 21 you will experience something, and that might make you think that you know what is going to happen to you tomorrow, so that gives you confidence when you yourself don’t have any. It’s an illusion,” she says.

Some believers of numerology are even known to change their names based on advice from numerologists. “Once they do, certain things start happening, which may have happened anyway even if they hadn’t changed their names. Life will have ups and downs either way, so if coincidentally something good happens, the person will start associating it with their name change and begin to believe it was as a consequence of that, whereas they really are two completely unrelated events,” Chatterjee Chakraborty points out.

The impacts of such actions and beliefs, however, may not always be innocuous. Forty-three-year old Avesh Kumar (name changed on request) runs a business in Chennai. He grew up in a family that has been known to have more consulting astrologers than doctors. On the eve of his 40th birthday, Kumar was told by his mother’s astrologer that he would make a massive fortune in his 42nd year, but only if he chants a prayer 20 times before taking any major step in his life. A fairly easy route to success, Kumar thought. “Until it wasn’t anymore,” he says. “I was always passively listening to astrologers in my family and never really paid much heed to them growing up. But my business had been suffering quite a bit since I turned 37, so I thought I could do with some good luck. I felt what’s the harm in trying?” he says.

A day after his 40th birthday, Kumar started chanting the prayer 20 times before starting his day—a feat that could take up to 10 minutes each time. Within two months, he found himself chanting those lines before he signed invoices. Six months later, he would say the lines even before taking any call, and he had to attend to several of them through the day, owing to the nature of his work. “I started missing calls and deadlines. I even started chanting these lines before eating dinner or driving. It had hijacked my life. I thought this would insure me against any failure, when in reality, this was more like the three witches’ prophecy in Macbeth. It meant absolutely nothing. It drove me to the lowest point in my life and I couldn’t get anything done. Within a year, I was in intense therapy for the first time ever,” he says.

Kumar is doing better now, and after witnessing their son’s predicament, his parents have finally been forced to abstain from seeking astrological counsel. “It was almost like a drug. Later, I found out that this guy had given the same advice to another family friend of mine who consulted him, and nothing came of it. At least they didn’t have to seek therapy for it,” he shares. 

This is a classic example of “cognitive bias” birthed by astrology and superstitions, which, as Chakraborty Chatterjee points out, becomes a major obstacle in therapy. Cognitive bias is defined as a set of predictable mental errors that arise from a human being’s limited ability to process information objectively. This can result in illogical and irrational decisions, leading one to misjudge risks and threats. “If someone has already decided that they will have a bad time or a good time because their horoscopes have said so, it becomes extremely difficult in therapy to prove to them that their assumptions are not true,” says the psychologist.

How much is too much? 

So while personal interests and hobbies can often inspire individuals to engage in a healthy manner with various subjects, including astrology and its several branches, too much of anything, as the cliche goes, can be detrimental to one’s well-being.

Ahmedabad-based astrologer Srinath N always advises his clients to be discerning, and exercise caution with the ways in which they interact with astrology and astrologers. He believes what people often seem to misunderstand is that astrology isn’t a solution for life, but a way of looking at life, and practitioners who prescribe “solutions” for problems are, more often than not, “being opportunistic and weaponising the vulnerabilities of people.” He further adds, “I don’t ask anyone to wear any remedial stones if they don’t want to. Some crystals may have calming effects on you, or energise you, but that still does not mean your life’s problems will disappear magically if you wear or carry them. You need to do a bunch of other things you would have to anyway.” 

In fact, Chatterjee Chakraborty had once collaborated with an astrologer at her clinic to help treat a patient who believed therapy could be swapped out for astrology. She says that in their training, mental health professionals are advised against challenging any other profession, unless something poses a threat to the lives of their clients. “I do know astrologers who also advocate for therapy, and they often send their clients to me, asking me to take up a certain case because they deem them beyond the help of astrology even,” she says, underlining the fact that at the end of the day, it’s only our minds that can make or break us, not so much our stars.

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